Census estimates released today show the 1980s are still shaping Pittsburgh's future, but new industries and an increase in college-educated people eventually could reverse the area's population decline, experts said.
Chris Briem, a regional economist at the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Social and Urban Research, said the seven-county region lost between 50,000 and 60,000 people a year -- mostly working-age adults and their children -- in the mid-1980s. A quarter-century later, relatively few of them have returned, he said.
Consequently, Pittsburgh is the only metro area among the 50 largest that has more deaths than births.
"The elderly aren't having kids, but they are dying," Briem said.
Pittsburgh's metro area includes Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland counties.
Today's population estimates show that metropolitan Pittsburgh lost about 7,500 people between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2007. The region had the ninth-lowest birth rate at 10.2 births per 1,000 people, and the 19th-highest death rate at 11.8 deaths per 1,000 people.
Briem said demographic forecasts for Pittsburgh predict the population decline is coming to an end.
"It's going to level off in the next couple of years," he said.
The area's population is moving closer to the national average when it comes to age groups, which means it eventually will start producing more births than deaths, he said. The forecasts project slow growth for the area after it makes that turn, Briem said.
Harold Miller, a consultant and adjunct professor at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz School of Public Policy and Management, agreed that the estimates show Pittsburgh is still in the grips of the local collapse of the steel industry two decades ago, but they hide a more vital question of which people the area is losing now.
Other numbers show the current out-migration is mainly recent retirees moving to Florida and other sunny locations, Miller said. That represents a short-term hit to the economy, but the future will mainly be determined by other age groups.
"We have actually been doing quite well in terms of young people," Miller said.
Carnegie Mellon research has shown more of its graduates stay in the area than originally come from here, so it's increasing the number of younger, college-educated people in the region, which should help both in terms of attracting higher-paying jobs and making more babies, he said.
"Ultimately, that will help attract people," he said.
Miller agreed that the area would probably see a positive net migration in the next few years, but was less willing to guess when it might start having more births and deaths.
"I think it's going to take a long time until we're growing significantly," he said.
Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc., said the population decline is hindering the area's future.
"It does represent a loss of vitality for the region," Dye said.
The two main reasons people move into an area are job opportunities and quality of life. Fewer people means fewer customers for areas businesses, which eventually leads to fewer jobs.
Fewer people also mean fewer dollars for government and amenities such as libraries, theaters and hospitals, he said.
On the positive side, Pittsburgh has growing robotics and biotech industries that are creating higher-paying jobs that will also create more secondary jobs in the region, he said.
"I think that's a bright spot for Pittsburgh's future," Dye said.
The census figures show that Pittsburgh remained the 22nd-largest metro area in the country: It fell from 20th over the past seven years. The 23rd-largest, Portland, has been growing by about 1.7 percent per year, while Pittsburgh has been shrinking by 0.4 percent per year. If both trends continue, Portland will pass Pittsburgh sometime in 2010.
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