Area pivotal for Clinton

A win in the state's presidential primary could give Democrat Hillary Clinton the fuel she needs to overtake Barack Obama in her uphill quest to become the nation's first female commander in chief. A victory for front-runner Obama, even a narrow one, would make it more likely he'll become the first black person to clinch a major-party presidential nomination, analysts say.

The candidates staged dueling rallies Monday in Pittsburgh and President Bill Clinton made a primary election eve stop in Greensburg.

"I know that we can change Washington," Hillary Clinton vowed during a rally in Market Square, Downtown, where she was joined by her husband. It was the couple's first joint appearance in Pennsylvania since the campaign for the Keystone State began in early March.

"We can bring about positive results for the American people," she told a crowd estimated at 6,000. "We can solve our problems, but we won't do it by just hoping it happens. We have to roll up our sleeves and get working together and overcome the opposition of those who do not want change."

"We are going to bring about change in this election, right here in Pennsylvania, right here in Allegheny County," Obama told a raucous crowd of more than 2,200 at Penn State's McKeesport campus.

A near-capacity crowd filled the Petersen Events Center for an Obama rally later last night. His wife, Michelle, joined him at both events.

"Democrats are going to be united (in the fall), because we agree that this country needs a fundamental shift," Obama said. But he criticized Clinton and Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, for, among other things, voting to authorize the war in Iraq. "We need somebody who's going to use our military wisely."

In his appearance at Greensburg Salem High School yesterday morning, the former president urged a crowd of several hundred people to vote today.

"Don't you believe your voice doesn't make a difference. Your vote ... can change the entire political conversation in America," he said.

Voters are expected to swarm to the polls.

James Montini, director of the Westmoreland County Election Bureau, expects 60 percent to 70 percent of registered Democrats will show up to vote.

"It's a very high turnout, but there seems to be a lot of interest in this," Montini said.

Mark Wolosik, director of the Allegheny County Elections Division, predicts about 60 percent turnout.

Clinton's hopes might ride on overtaking Obama in the popular vote nationwide because she likely will end the primaries still trailing Obama in the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August. Clinton trails Obama nationally in the popular vote, but she could overtake him on that count if she wins Pennsylvania and nine other remaining contests with large margins.

In an unofficial tally by The Associated Press, Obama has 1,414 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,250 -- those chosen during the primaries and caucuses. Neither candidate, however, is likely to reach the 2,024 needed to clinch the nomination without a majority of so-called superdelegates -- the 795 elected and party officials who can vote for whomever they choose.

Clinton, 60, continued to trail Obama, 46, by another key metric -- money. He outraised and outspent her through the end of March, and spent more than twice what she did on television ads during the final week.

Voters in Indiana and North Carolina, who cast their ballots May 6, will be watching today's primary closely.

"What's going to affect (those voters) is the more general consensus that comes out of the Pennsylvania primary as to whether Clinton is on track to surge or whether she's not," said Marjorie Hershey, political science professor at Indiana University in Bloomington, Ind.

Superdelegates also could be swayed by the Pennsylvania results.

"I think the final argument for a lot of superdelegates is going to be who's ahead in pledged delegates and who's ahead in popular votes. She needs to win (Pennsylvania) by a significant margin to close either of those two gaps," said Thomas Carsey, the Thomas J. Pearsall Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.

"A gap of 5 percentage points or less is an Obama victory. A gap of 10 percentage points or more is a Clinton victory," Carsey said.

If Clinton wins by between 5 and 10 percentage points, the contest becomes all about North Carolina and Indiana. Carsey and Hershey said.

"The real difference, particularly for the superdelegates, is if Clinton wins convincingly in Pennsylvania, then that is at least the opening wedge in the argument that she has the strength to carry the nomination," Hershey said.

Any victory, regardless of the margin, probably means Clinton will stay in the race, Hershey said.

An Obama win, however, could torpedo Clinton's argument that only she can carry the big states in a general election, Carsey said.

"If he wins Pennsylvania, that would be right now a shock to the political system," Carsey said.

The unprecedented interest in Pennsylvania -- its isolation on the primary calendar forced the candidates to campaign here for seven weeks -- likely has changed the state for a generation, said Marc Morgenstern, executive director of Declare Yourself, a national nonpartisan group dedicated to registering young voters.

"If someone registers at age 18, all the research shows that they'll be a voter for their entire life. What we're finding in Pennsylvania is the pivotal nature of this primary just gave people that extra incentive to sign up," Morgenstern said.

The number of registered voters between 18 and 24 is 50 percent higher than in 2004.

The last time so much was riding on Pennsylvania's primary was 1976, when Jimmy Carter's victory here helped him seal the Democratic nomination.

Reporter Paul Peirce contributed to this story.

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