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E-mailGet serious, Sarah
Salena Zito covers politics for the Trib. She can be reached via e-mail or at 412-320-7879.
Much will be said in coming weeks about Sarah Palin and the Republican Party -- especially after the Democrat "upset" in New York's 23rd Congressional District and the "over-the-top" Republican gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey.
First of all, Palin will not leave the Republican Party.
"As independent-minded and anti-establishment as she is," says Villanova University political science professor Lara Brown, "she seems to understand well one of my favorite quotes from political scientist John Aldrich from Duke University: 'The standard line that anyone can grow up to be president may be true, but it is true only if one grows up to be a major party nominee.'"
Palin is positioning herself to become the Republican presidential nominee, and getting involved in NY-23 was merely the first step. Her book and her "Oprah" interview later this month are her next major steps.
As they say, "All politics is local," which is why Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman did not win the New York race. The endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens by dropout Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava didn't help; the local GOP party bosses who chose Scozzafava most likely decided, after all the Hoffman hype, that they were not going out of their way to turn out the vote for Hoffman.
Yet just because the third-party guy didn't win, the support given to him by Palin (and other GOP conservatives, such as Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina and Club for Growth types) should not be discounted.
For a third-party candidate, Hoffman did very well, rallying the GOP base to his campaign in an extraordinarily short time. Just 30 days ago, he was considered a spoiler, not a contender.
Make no mistake, the Republican Party's leadership remains split, but that might not be such a bad thing for them right now.
The GOP must decide which way to move -- toward conservatives or toward moderates and liberals. Last week's races should help them figure that out, if they don't miss the signs.
"I would argue, based on what happened last Tuesday, that they should move toward the conservatives," says Brown. "But -- and this is a big 'but' -- they need to focus on fiscal issues such as taxing, spending, deficits and debt, and the size of government, issues like freedom, liberty and small government, and not the cultural conservative issues," such as abortion and gay marriage.
The Republican victory margins in New Jersey and Virginia were about twice as large as expected. Most observers thought Bob McDonnell would carry Virginia by about 9 percent; he won by 18 percent. And many believed New Jersey governor-elect Chris Christie would squeak out a win, by about 2 percent; he won by 4 percent.
In each case, it all came down to swing voters.
Independents in both states moved toward the GOP in a big way, and their movement had everything to do with precisely the issues cited by Brown: the economy, jobs, taxes and a desire for fiscal responsibility (which McDonnell and Christie focused on), not cultural issues such as same-sex marriage (which is what Hoffman and the Club for Growth focused on).
If Palin wants to be considered a credible presidential hopeful for 2012, she needs to do more than release a book and go on "Oprah." She needs to weigh in on serious issues -- such as energy, the size of government, federal taxing and spending -- and to support candidates in 2010 who promote those issues.
Palin has lots of opportunities to do that, Brown says, adding: "But if she wants to win, then she has to move away from her 'rebellious, risk-taking conservative' image and adopt more of a 'substantive, discerning reformer' image."
