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CAIRO – By using historical allusions that resonate with Arabs and Muslims, a new tape reportedly released by terrorist leader Osama bin Laden is likely to strengthen the al-Qaida, experts here say.

The tape, aired Tuesday by Al Jazeera, an Arab TV network based in Qatar, comes at a time when the extremist ideology of bin Laden and his Egyptian deputy, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, is gaining popularity among Egyptian and other Arab youths, Islamist radicals boast.

In the tape, bin Laden warned the United States and U.S. allies that terrorist attacks in Tunisia, Yemen, Pakistan, Indonesia, Kuwait, Jordan and Russia are all part of a reciprocal “part of justice” for U.S.-led attacks on Muslims.

President Bush said he accepts the tape may be authentic.

"We need to take these messages very seriously and we will," Bush told reporters after meeting with his Cabinet. The U.S. and other nations are taking it "very seriously," he said.

Harlan Ullman, a national security scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the tape should be a warning to the U.S. to expect another terrorist attack from the network blamed for last year's Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

Combining a low profile with occasional threats to the West fits bin Laden's "modus operandi," Ullman said. "Certainly within six or 12 months there will be an attack. Whether it will have the magnitude of the twin towers, who knows?"

Bin Laden called Bush the “pharaoh of the age” – a curious reference to the ancient rulers of Egypt – “who kills our sons in Iraq.” He asked America’s allies why they are aligning with the “White House gangsters,” specifically mentioning Britain, France, Italy, Canada, Germany and Australia, and warned: “(J)ust as you kill, you will be killed. Just as you bomb, you will be bombed.”

Egyptian analysts said the importance of the message was not its content, but its existence.

It declares to bin Laden followers and foes alike, “ ‘Hey! I am still alive and kicking,’ ” said Sharif Elmusa, director of Middle Eastern studies at the American University in Cairo. He called it “a blanket condemnation and targeting of all of America’s allies” that will heighten a “war of nerves” smoldering between the United States and Arab nations over such issues as an invasion of Iraq.

The bin Laden tape followed a videotape of Al-Zawahiri released two weeks ago. Together, the two statements will boost the spirits of al-Qaida’s members, Elmusa explained.

“If you lose your leader, then you begin to split and become fragmented,” he said. The two messages make it “harder to split up if your leaders are still there.”

Bin Laden used historical references, such as calling Bush a “pharaoh,” to appeal to potential followers in the region, he added. References to children being killed in Iraq and in Palestine also find sympathetic ears among Arab populaces, he said.

“Bin Laden’s main objective is to create a state of polarization … that is dividing the world into the United States and its allies and the rest of the Muslim world,” said Emad Shahin, an expert on Islamic movements at the American University in Cairo.

Abou Elela Mady, a moderate Egyptian Islamist, publicly rejects such polarization. He blames its spread in the Arab world on more radical Islamic movements that adhere to bin Laden’s extremism.

“The Islamic movements in general view the ‘other’ ” – meaning Western and other non-Muslim countries – “with animosity, and it is confrontational,” said Mady. To such groups, those who disagree are enemies “and the world is split between the believers and infidels … between the Land of Islam and the Land of War.”

Other Islamists in Cairo, however, claim that the United States is helping to fulfill bin Laden’s objectives.

“There was an invasion of Afghanistan – and then talk of invading Iraq, and invading Saudi Arabia – from America, as the leader of the crusade,” said Montasser El-Zayat, an Islamist lawyer who has defended many Islamic radicals in Egyptian courts.

“Tunisia, Bali, Kuwait and Yemen – all of these (attacks) are attributed to al-Qaida,” he said. But they were simply committed by “Muslims who are angry and will reject America’s actions,” he added.

The radical ideology of bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri has gained adherents in the post-Sept 11 environment, said Gamal Sultan, a former member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, a terrorist group that carried out numerous attacks against Egyptian targets and foreign tourists in Egypt. Al-Zawahiri was one of its leaders before he joined forces with bin Laden in Afghanistan.

“The United States, with its violent and excessive retribution filled with arrogance, created sympathy for them (bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri) that the United States didn’t dream of,” said Sultan. “It restored respect to the Islamic movements because they are viewed as popular movements that stand in the face of the strongest power on earth.”

Mahfouz Azzam, an uncle of Al-Zawahiri and a lawyer, said the recent videotape of his nephew gave him “hope that he is still alive.” Al-Zawahiri had not been seen in public for more than a year, after the U.S.-led attacks began in Afghanistan.

Azzam, sounding much like his nephew, accused the United States of creating a violent atmosphere in the region.

“You want to change the culture of Islam to suit your own Yankee culture,” he said, pounding his fists on a desktop. “This is the red line, and there will be an explosion!”

He also echoed bin Laden’s words when offering his own solution to the current crisis: “Leave our countries. Don’t back these tyrannical regimes. Lift your hand of support for Israel. And we will have no problem with you.”

But Intelligence analysts examining the message caution that they will never be sure the voice is actually bin Laden's.

Computer voice analysis lacks the accuracy of fingerprint or DNA identification and can be hamstrung by a skilled impersonator or low-quality recording.

Analysts at the National Security Agency and CIA who are handling the tape are measuring two kinds of voice characteristics against previous recordings, experts said.

First, they measure the acoustics that give an idea of the physical features of a person's vocal tract — the shapes of the mouth, throat and nasal passages used in speech. They also study the style of speech — the timing, speed and pitch — while looking for distinctive intonations.

Neither measurement is exact, but a close resemblance on both counts can give a good idea that the voice is a match.

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