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Prediction: Murphy will win re-election

Mayor Tom Murphy will win re-election in 2005.

There. I said it. I was the first one, but probably not the last.

It's not far-fetched. Dennis Kucinich, formerly known as the mayor who ran Cleveland into a fiscal crisis in the 1970s, is now known as the vegan presidential candidate. Granted, he barely registers in the field of Democrats -- in a recent poll he had just 2 percent.

Given the Newsweek poll's margin of era of plus or minus 3 percent, it means that I am now in a statistical dead heat for the Democratic presidential nomination with Kucinich. And I'm not even running for the Democratic nomination.

Still, if someone who forged Cleveland's "Mistake By The Lake" moniker can dust off his political career and run for president, what's to stop Murphy from making a serious run for mayor not even three years after he ran Pittsburgh into the ground?

Despite last week's suburbanites-are-racists comments and a censure by City Council, Murphy acts like he's on the verge of running for a fourth term. City Council censured the mayor for "neglecting his duty" when he submitted a budget that contains a $42 million deficit.

Local law requires the mayor to submit a balanced budget. Was Murphy being an absent-minded bone head, or was he being politically savvy?

As one City Council insider pointed out last week, submitting an unbalanced budget puts the burden on council and takes it off the Mayor's Office. When residents begin to complain that services are being cut and taxes are going up, Murphy can blame it squarely on City Council and argue that he was working for more state funding.

Certainly such political wrangling will be long forgotten by the Democratic primary in May 2005. But what might not be forgotten is if Murphy is successful in "saving" the city by getting slot machines legalized, pumping a whole new stream of revenues into Pittsburgh.

State Rep. Dan Frankel and Prothonotary Michael Lamb, along with Councilmen William Peduto, Gene Ricciardi, and Sala Udin are on the long list of people who are rumored to be considering a run for mayor. With them and who knows who else crowding the ticket, it's not that far-fetched to think Murphy can take his incumbent's advantage and slot machine revenues and spin them into a fourth term.

Without the gambling revenue, Murphy remains a long shot. But look on the bright side: if he does remain Pittsburgh's mayor, at least he can't run for -- and potentially win -- a higher office.