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The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee lost ground to President Bush in the latest poll conducted for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Keystone poll by Franklin & Marshall College showed Bush leading Kerry 46 percent to 40 percent among 565 registered voters. Kerry lost 7 percentage points since the last Keystone poll in February. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The Massachusetts senator emerged from the primaries in other states as an unknown quantity to most Pennsylvania voters. Bush's TV ads have helped define Kerry in some voters' minds, said poll director G. Terry Madonna.

"The Bush people have defined him as liberal, as a flip-flopper and inconsistent," Madonna said. "He's been rocked by the Bush television ads."

Moreover, Kerry had a difficult month in terms of his own misstatements and confusing explanations on some issues, Madonna said.

Bush's support held constant in the poll despite recent assertions by former Bush counterterrorism advisor Richard Clarke that the president didn't aggressively confront terrorism prior to the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

Pollsters were in the field from March 25-29 after Clarke's allegations hit the airwaves, and Madonna said he saw no evidence that Clarke's claims had any effect on Pennsylvania voters.

To a lesser extent, Kerry also could be hurt by independent Ralph Nader's entry into the race. About 3 percent of those polled said they would vote for Nader, whom many Democrats blame for siphoning enough votes from Al Gore in 2000 to give Bush the presidency. Madonna estimates that about two-thirds of Nader's votes would come from Kerry.

"Pennsylvania remains one of the key battleground states that will be in the forefront of the (national) campaign," Madonna said.

The number of voters with an unfavorable view of Kerry rose to 33 percent in March, from 26 percent in February, the poll showed. Bush's unfavorable ratings remained relatively constant at about 42 percent.

The encouraging sign for Kerry is that Pennsylvanians see the economy as the top issue (31 percent), followed by terrorism (22 percent), Madonna said. More Bush supporters see terrorism as the top issue while more Kerry voters see the economy as the biggest problem, he said.

"Senator Kerry has faced a barrage of negative ads in the past few weeks," said Rep. T.J. Rooney, D-Bethlehem, chairman of the state Democratic party. "Other national polls show (Kerry) holding a lead.

"There's no question in my mind it'll be a close race" by November, Rooney said. "We're poised to deliver the state for Senator Kerry."

Dan Hayward, executive director of the Republican State Committee, said, "The Bush campaign has a strong message. Getting that out between now and the election is what it'll take to win." Strong grassroots organization is a major advantage for Bush in Pennsylvania, Hayward said.

For Kerry, "the honeymoon is over," Hayward said.

The Democratic presidential candidates had turned their guns on Bush for months during the primaries, Hayward said. "They all had a free ride" with Bush not actively campaigning for most of that period, Hayward said. "Now the true agenda of John Kerry is getting out."

Rooney said Kerry can carry the state by "keeping the election focused on the issues that matter to people -- the economy, Social Security, health care and Medicare."

Kerry performs strongest in Southeastern Pennsylvania, Philadelphia and Allegheny County. Bush is carrying the rest of the state. Bush's largest margin is in central Pennsylvania, where he leads Kerry by a 55-32 percent margin.

In Southwestern Pennsylvania, Bush is ahead of Kerry 45 percent to 40 percent.

Bush is leading statewide among voters who identify themselves as born-again Christians, and by gun owners and wealthy voters. Bush also leads 46-37 percent among men and 45-41 percent among women.

Voters 65 and older prefer Kerry by a 48-37 percent margin over Bush, the poll showed.

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