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Pull the plug
These bids call into very serious question whether the project can be built for the current estimate of $393 million.
The Federal Transit Administration (FTA), in November 2003, reported the cost as $363 million. The cost increase since then will require an additional $25 million in federal taxpayer money over and above the $217.7 million New Start funds and the diversion of more than $70 million of the region's federal transportation funds to the project by the Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission.
In addition, nearly $80 million of Allegheny County and state funds have been committed.
The FTA first rejected the North Shore Connector when its estimated cost was $393 million. And it barely met the cost-benefit analysis criterion in the second, downsized, $363-million version of the application. Even then approval depended on an unexplained 60 percent increase in projected riders compared to the initial proposal.
The state and county could be looking at making up more than $100 million and possibly much more depending on whether unpredictable setbacks occur during construction.
The question is: Do state and county officials want to take this bet on an overly expensive project with little economic value to the region?
As we have pointed out previously, the case being made for the connector is an ex post rationalization that simply does not withstand scrutiny. But more important, the economics just don't work.
Even using the questionable ridership numbers, the cost over the first 20 or so years is about $15 per round trip. The connector provides no help for folks coming to the stadiums or new office buildings from the north, the Parkway East or the Parkway West. It will serve mostly those who use the existing "T" lines and a few with trips originating Downtown.
Nor is it a jumping-off point for a route to the airport. The "T" already crosses the Monongahela River and it would be much more sensible to take the line along the south shore than to cross the Ohio River at enormous additional expense.
As for the argument that it will help Steelers and Pirates fans get to games, nothing could be more nonsensical. And the argument that North Shore office and residential development will benefit from the tunnel to Downtown fails on two levels.
First of all, the North Shore plan calls for an eventual total of $200 million in new buildings. This for a $300 million investment in transit improvements -- not a good payoff. Second, several buildings have already been constructed without the presumed benefits of the connector. Obviously, the tunnel connection was not a critical factor in the decision of those owners to be on the North Shore.
There is only one logical step. Pull the plug on the connector. Scrap this project before any more money is wasted.
Jake Haulk is president of the Allegheny Institute for Public Policy.
