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Senate poll has Casey up by 11 points over Santorum

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) - State Treasurer Bob Casey's double-digit lead in his challenge to incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum narrowed slightly over the past month and a half, according to a statewide poll released Thursday.

Forty-eight percent of voters in the Quinnipiac University Poll said they supported Democrat Casey, compared to 37 percent for two-term incumbent Republican Santorum.

The 11-point spread was four points closer than it was in mid-February and as close as the race has been in five Quinnipiac polls taken since last July.

"I would call it a normalizing of the race, because an incumbent senator is seldom as far behind as Santorum was in earlier polls," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Both candidates continued to draw strong support from their respective party bases, with Republicans favoring Santorum 70-17 and Democrats lining up behind Casey 77-9. Independents, which Richards said constitute nearly a third of the Pennsylvania vote, favored Casey 53-28.

Casey campaign spokesman Larry Smar said the poll reflects public dissatisfaction with developments in Washington and Santorum's support of President Bush's policies.

"I'd much rather be around 50 than under 40 like Sen. Santorum. We've said all along that the polls will tighten, but we'd still rather be in this position," Smar said.

Santorum spokeswoman Virginia Davis said it would be premature to draw too many conclusions from polls this early in the campaign season.

"We don't really expect to see a real shift until the campaigns are truly under way," Davis said. "When both candidates are out on the campaign trail more regularly, when candidates are on the air and I think also when voters are more engaged."

Democrats said they strongly favored Casey against the other two Democrats in the May 16 primary. Casey had the support of 63 percent of respondents, attorney Alan Sandals drew 5 percent and professor Chuck Pennacchio was at 4 percent.

Casey and Santorum both hold anti-abortion views, but the poll indicated 69 percent of voters were unaware of Casey's stance and 8 percent erroneously described him as favoring abortion rights.

Pennacchio and Sandals do support abortion rights.

The poll also found Pennsylvania voters disapproved of Bush's job performance, 60-35, and disapproved of how the president has handled Iraq, 62-35. His approval rate among Republicans was 67 percent, but among Democrats it was 9 percent.

The telephone poll surveyed 1,354 voters, including 565 Democrats, from March 28-April 3. The poll's sampling margin of error was plus or minus 2.7 percentage points; among Democrats, the margin was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

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