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Poll: Rendell widens lead
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ed Rendell
Mark Stehle/AP
Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Fisher
Heidi Murrin/Tribune-Review
The statewide poll of registered voters shows Rendell, 58, the former Philadelphia mayor, holding a 45 to 30 percent lead over Fisher, 57, the state attorney general from Upper St. Clair, with a little more than a month remaining before the election.
The Keystone Poll of 573 registered voters, with a 4 percentage point margin of error, was conducted Sept. 26-29 for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review by G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University in Lancaster County.
"What's going on is that Rendell has solidified his base and Fisher has not," Madonna said. "There are many, many Republicans who have not come home to Fisher. He has to galvanize the Republican base."
Among Fisher's supporters, 49 percent are Republican while seven of 10 Democrats are backing Rendell, according to the poll.
Rendell spokesman Dan Fee said the campaign is "obviously very pleased by these results. It shows that Ed's positive message and vision for the future is the best of any candidate."
Kent Gates, Fisher's campaign manager, said the poll is "actually encouraging for us, in that Ed Rendell spent $25-plus million on television, and a majority of the voters aren’t voting for him. The numbers are probably a little high. I think the election is actually a little closer than that based on our own polling. We’re confident a majority of the voters will side with us."
The numbers were a surprise in the political community, given that two unrelated polls on Sept. 18 and Sept. 26 showed Rendell with leads of 7 and 11 points, respectively. The 11-point Rendell lead was reported by the Morning Call newspaper of Allentown based on a poll conducted by Muhlenberg College.
"It is a shock given the recent indications that it was tightening," said Michael Young, a former Penn State political science professor and now a public affairs consultant in Harrisburg. "Overall, it's dismal and demoralizing for Republicans."
The Keystone Poll's margin of error means Fisher could be as close as 11 points to Rendell, or he could be trailing by as much as 19 points. Green Party candidate Michael Morrill, 47, of Reading, garnered 1 percent in the poll and Libertarian Party candidate Ken Krawchuk, 49, of Montgomery County, had less than 1 percent.
One in four voters — or 24 percent — were undecided.
Madonna said undecided voters, when asked whom they are leaning toward, favor Rendell over Fisher by a 52-35 percent margin.
Still, Madonna said, "I don't think this is over. Republicans have a way in the final weeks of a campaign of rallying behind their candidate."
When asked whether Fisher can win, Joseph Sabino Mistick, a Pittsburgh political analyst, said, "That's a lot of ground to cover in the amount of time that’s left. It appears Fisher's best chance will come on Election Day with a voter turnout strategy that plays to his strengths. If these numbers are the same in a couple of weeks, he's going to need a Hail Mary play to save him."
As for the differences in polls, Mistick said, "There obviously is a mechanical reason for the difference. Things don't swing that far so quickly. There has to be some difference in how these polls are conducted or how they are measuring."
John Norton, chairman of the political science department at Lebanon Valley College in eastern Pennsylvania, said the Keystone Poll "has got to be a huge setback for the Fisher campaign, if it is accurate."
The poll shows that voters believe Rendell will do a better job than Fisher in several policy areas: reforming property taxes, dealing with the problems in public schools, improving health care for senior citizens and creating jobs. Voters also think Rendell has the best vision for the state's future and the most knowledge and experience in government, Madonna said.
Susan Hansen, a political science professor at the University of Pittsburgh, said she thinks it would be difficult for Fisher to erase the kind of lead the poll shows.
"Things can happen, if Rendell makes some major misstep," she said. "But he's an experienced politician, and that's not expected to happen."
The Keystone Poll results have the potential to hurt Fisher's money-raising efforts, political analyst Mistick said. But poll results like this also can "energize your street workers, because they have a lot of ground to cover," he added.
Overall, the southwest remains a key battleground where Fisher and Rendell are locked in a tight contest. Fisher leads in central Pennsylvania. Rendell is leading in the northwestern part of the state.
Rendell, well-known in the Philadelphia area, is carrying the southeast by a 61-20 percent margin.
The poll shows Fisher has gained name recognition from his television advertisements, but voters view his ads as unfair, public affairs consultant Young said. Fisher's unfavorable rating by voters is more than double what it was in the last Keystone Poll in June.
Yet Young said voters apparently are not rejecting the GOP message, and overall they are satisfied with the state's direction under Republican control. When Republican Gov. Mark Schweiker is matched against Rendell, Schweiker leads by 47-29 percent. That's because of Schweiker's national celebrity for his deft handling of the accident at Quecreek Mine.
"It's not the message; it's the messenger," Young said.
"What's going on is the Rendell phenomenon, the likes of which we haven't seen in recent Pennsylvania history," Madonna said. It's in part Rendell's charisma and "engaging campaign style" propelling his numbers, Madonna said.
